Marine investigation:
the seasonal influx of tropical fish
at Seal Rocks, NSW, Australia
(currently self funded)
INTENTIONS OF THE INVESTIGATION:
understandings, predictions
and weaknesses in knowledge
UNDERSTANDING 1
There is strong evidence for the role of the East Australian Current in transporting tropical reef fishes southwards at a coastal scale (Booth et al. 2007)
WEAKNESS 1
However, there is little evidence that individual recruitment events are related to local increases in water temperature associated with the arrival of the EAC on the southern coasts (Booth et al. 2007).
INTENTION 1;
In respect to Weakness 1, it is the intention that regular repeated surveying (along the same snorkeling track out to Statis Island) during each influx season will provide evidence to link recruitment events with the arrival of the East Australian Current (EAC).
PREDICTION 1:
With the progression of climate change, it is predicted that the East Australian Current (EAC) will transport greater volumes of water from the Coral Sea southward to the Tasman Sea, resulting in higher ocean temperatures about south-eastern Australia (Hobday and Lough 2011)
PREDICTION 2
The strengthening and increasing southward extent of the EAC is already occurring with climate change, increasing the
potential for tropical species to move south
Click to see an image of the EAC in October 2016
WEAKNESS 2
There is negligible direct evidence for
climate-induced range shifts in Australian fish species (Booth et al. 2011). In 2011 a study of rocky shore fauna along south-eastern Australia (Poloczanska et al. 2011) claimed that there was little change over 60 years despite it being a period of rapid warming with increases in temperature of ~1.5oC
INTENTION 2
In respect to Weakness2, it is the intention that maintaining the repeated surveys over the long-term (i.e. multiple influx seasons) will incrementally provide evidence of the influence of climate change - mediated through the strengthening of the EAC - on the range of tropical marine fish.